Monika Avila Márquez
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Monika Avila
Márquez

Monika Avila Márquez

Postdoctoral Researcher in Statistics

Ph.D. in Econometrics

University of Geneva

CV

I am an econometrician and statistician working in causal inference for observational data with emphasis in settings with interference, and in the use of machine learning methods in panel data econometrics. I also work on model selection for crossed-random effects models for experimental data. I am a postdoctoral researcher in Statistics at the University of Geneva.

About my research

Selected Research

Weak instrumental variables due to nonlinearities in panel data: A Super Learner Control Function estimator
Working paper  ·  arXiv:2504.03228  ·  2025
Abstract

I propose a control function estimator for panel data models with weak instruments due to nonlinear first stages. The estimator combines a Super Learner ensemble for the first stage with semiparametric efficiency theory, achieving √NT-consistency and Neyman orthogonality in the presence of generated regressors. Monte Carlo simulations confirm finite-sample performance across a range of DGPs.

arXiv Slides EuroCIM 2026 poster R package
Causal Identification under Interference: The Role of Treatment Assignment Independence
with Julius Owusu
Working paper  ·  arXiv:2604.22532  ·  2026
Submitted
Abstract

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or individualistic treatment response (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in many economic settings. This paper studies the causal content of standard ITR-based identification formulas when arbitrary interference is present. We show that, under restrictions on dependence between treatment assignments across units, conventional ITR-based identification formulas---including those underlying selection-on-observables, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and difference-in-differences---identify well-defined causal objects: types of average direct effects (ADEs). These results do not require knowledge of the interference structure or specification of exposure mappings. We also propose a sensitivity analysis framework that quantifies the robustness of statistical inference to violations of treatment-assignment independence under arbitrary interference.

arXiv R package

Fields

Causal inference for observational data Debiased/Orthogonal Machine learning Panel data Instrumental variables

Education & positions

2022 – present Postdoctoral Researcher in Statistics, Methods and Data Analysis,University of Geneva
2023 – 2025 Assistant Professor in Econometrics, Econometrics Group, University of Bristol
2016 – 2022 PhD in Econometrics, University of Geneva

Community

  • Founding member, R-Ladies Geneva
  • Mentor, rOpenSci Champions Program 2026
 

Monika Avila Márquez · University of Geneva